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market analysis
Gold will be backtested first after a record high, or will it be a second breakthrough directly?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】: After the gold record high, it will be a direct second breakthrough?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (September 8), spot gold fluctuated narrowly above US$3,600, and once surged to a historical high of US$3,616.81 during the day. The previous weak US non-farm report triggered a sharp drop in the US dollar's low since July 28, but it rebounded slightly in the new week, and the equity market's risk appetite rebounded, causing gold to enter the consolidation rhythm at a high level. Despite this, the market's pricing of the Fed's probability of a rate cut in September is as high as 92%, and a total of three rate cuts this year may be made. The gold bull structure has not been damaged.
State: Weak non-agricultural trading resonates with interest rate cuts, the US dollar stabilizes and is difficult to change the medium-term support of gold
Employment data weakened significantly. In August, the number of non-agricultural new cases increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected; more importantly, historical data was revised downward - employment decreased by 13,000 in June, the first monthly negative growth since December 2020, pointing to the marginal weakness of the US labor market.
Employment and salary are convergent. The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded from 62.2% to 62.3%; the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages fell from 3.9% to 3.7%. The cooling of wage momentum and the slowdown in employment expansion have weakened the positive feedback chain of inflation and the wage increase-inflation-rate hike.
Policies are expected to be priced quickly. Driven by the above data, the market has rapidly increased its bet on the Fed's more radical easing - not only is the rate cut in September seen as a high-probability event, but three interest rate cuts this year have become the mainstream consensus, and discussions on "small probability of a significant rate cut" have also begun to emerge. Real interest rates and holding cost logic are therefore beneficial to gold prices.
The US dollar stabilizes more like a technological repair. ReceivedThe impact of the profit settlement and new weekly position coverage, the US dollar rebounded moderately since its low last Friday; at the same time, the strong equity market has temporarily cooled down the demand for safe-havenness, which has a marginal restraint on gold. However, in the context of expectations of interest rate cuts and continued net gold purchases by official global departments, it is not easy for the US dollar to show a strong trend rebound, and gold still has a "basic buffer" in the lower level.
The focus this week turned to U.S. inflation. After employment cools down, inflation readings will determine the “grain size” of the easing rhythm. If inflation falls simultaneously, the market's confidence in the path of interest rate cuts will be reconfirmed; if inflation is unexpectedly resilient, gold may experience a more standardized high-level retracement and rebalancing, but as long as the direction of easing remains unchanged, the medium-term bulls will not be damaged.
Technical:
From the daily chart, gold has maintained an upward trend recently, and after a large volume, it has shown a typical trend acceleration pattern of "Polliner's upper track" after it has risen. The indicator parameters show that the upper and lower rails of the Bollinger band and the middle rail are located at 3583.57/3237.36/3410.47 respectively. The current price has effectively stood on the upper rails. The diameter of the Bollinger band has expanded significantly, reflecting the trend force still has the advantage. The most recent high above the price is 3616.81, which is the watershed between short-term resistance and long-shoulder; the 3550.00 line below is the support after the recent breakthrough, and there is also the dynamic support of the upper track 3583.57 above. If the oscillation retracement deepens, pay attention to the trend support of Bollinger's middle track 3410.47.
In terms of momentum, MACD's DIFF/DEA is 59.90/36.53, respectively, and the bar chart 46.73 continues to amplify and are both above the zero axis, indicating strong bull momentum; but RSI (14) is at 78.14, which is in a significantly overbought range, indicating that there is a short-term need for pullback/sided digestion. The K-line pattern is continuous positive and accompanied by limited upper shadow. The trend does not show a "black cloud covers the top" or "swallows" signal. The high level is more likely to be interpreted as a rhythm of "breakthrough-back-test-upward" approach. eouu.cnprehensive judgment: 3616.81 is the upper edge suppression, 3583.57-3550.00 constitutes the first support belt, and 3410.47 is the mid-term lifeline.
Preview of Market Sentiment:
After weak non-agricultural, "interest rate cut trading" strengthens the relative attractiveness of gold as a non-income asset, and market sentiment switches from "chasing the rise" to "holding-oriented". The implicit volatility of options and the Bollinger bandwidth rise simultaneously, indicating that the volatility start phase is still continuing. At the same time, the strong equity market has caused the risk aversion to premium, making the momentum of gold after a short-term upward surge is not linear.
From the perspective of group psychology and reflexiveness frameworks, historical highs are often accompanied by the resonance of "missing the air psychology" and "chasing the rise", but the short-term squeeze of RSI overbought (78.14) and "overtrack operation" will also increase the risk of false breakthroughs. Once the price falls below 3583.57 and fails to recover quickly, sentiment may switch from "greed" to "cautious" and seek backtest confirmation of 3550.00; if this position is held, the bull market sentiment will be quickly restored.
Future futureOutlook: Situational deduction
Short-term (several days to one week)
Offerent consolidation is the main focus. Under the influence of RSI overbought and intensive trading at high levels, gold is more likely to perform consolidation market interpretation within the range of 3616.81 and 3583.57-3550.00. Through sideways trend or a slight retracement, the backtesting of the upper edge of the upward channel and the support confirmation of 3550.00 are eouu.cnpleted.
The scene is broken. If the daily price level effectively closes above 3616.81 and continues to rise with the MACD bar chart, it can be regarded as a confirmation of a new round of volume breakthroughs, and the bulls will strive to build a new level channel above 3600.
Break the scene. If it falls below 3550.00 and increases in volume, the eouu.cnbined support of 3583.57 (as the dynamic digit from resistance to branch) and Bollinger's middle rail 3410.47 will be tested in the short term; as long as the middle rail does not fall, the upward trend will remain intact.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: After gold's historical highs, it will be backtested first, or will it be a direct second breakthrough?". It was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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