Germany's huge investment increased, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 5

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.05%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.53%. The German DAX index rose 0.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.29%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.12%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.21%.

2. Market news interpretation

Germany has increased its investment in huge investments. Can the new fiscal policy drive the economic engine? ⑴ The German Budget eouu.cnmittee has approved the 2025 budget, with a total expenditure of up to 502.5 billion euros, of which the investment amount has been recorded at 62.7 billion euros, showing the government's determination to stimulate the economy through large-scale fiscal spending. This move aims to ensure employment, strengthen economic resilience and promote the country's modernization process. ⑵ The implementation of the budget is due to a special infrastructure fund of €500 billion and a policy of exempting defense expenditure from debt rules. If included in this infrastructure fund and a €100 billion defense special fund established to deal with geopolitical conflicts, the total budget size in 2025 will climb to €591 billion. ⑶The core budget plans to borrow 81.7 billion euros in 2025, while the total amount of loans including special funds will reach 143.1 billion euros. While the main opposition parties expressed concerns about such fiscal expansion and the easing of “debt brake” regulations, believing that this may be just a matter of delay, the government stressed that the move was intended to address the current challenges and achieve economic recovery and development. ⑷ Despite the huge investment plan, the market still has doubts about the fiscal sustainability of the government, especially at presentAgainst the backdrop of intensified global economic volatility. Investors and analysts will closely monitor the actual implementation of these fiscal measures and their impact on the overall economic outlook of Germany and the euro zone.

Ireland's unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in August, youth employment improved

⑴Ireland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, and the previous value was revised down to 4.8%. ⑵The number of unemployed people decreased by 4,000 month-on-month to 138,200. ⑶The unemployment rate for men fell to 4.9% (the previous value is 5.0%), and the unemployment rate for women fell to 4.5% (the previous value is 4.7%). ⑷The unemployment rate for young people aged 15-24 has dropped to 11.9% (the previous value is 12.1%). ⑸The unemployment rate for people aged 25-74 has dropped to 3.6% (the previous value is 3.8%).

OPEC's daily crude oil production in August reached 28.55 million barrels, the pressure on oversupply increased

⑴ The survey showed that OPEC's daily crude oil production in August was 28.55 million barrels, an increase of 400,000 barrels per day from the previous month. ⑵ The output growth rate is basically in line with the production target agreed last month, but the output in July is down 160,000 barrels per day. ⑶ Saudi Arabia's production in July and August was lower than the agreement level, offsetting the impact of a significant overproduction in June. ⑷In August, the production of member countries under quota was only 340,000 barrels per day higher than the agreement level, and the excess production narrowed. ⑸OPEC crude oil production is still significantly higher than market demand, and it faces a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. ⑹This data has not yet been included in the production growth planned for September.

The tug-of-war of economic "resilience": the dilemma of high interest rates and the fog of growth

⑴ Russian Federal President Putin denied the claim of economic stagnation on Tuesday, although data showed that the economy and technology were in recession. Data shows that Sberbank CEO Glev, one of the major players in the market, said the economy is in a state of "technical stagnation" and called for lower interest rates. ⑵ The latest data released by institutions show that Russia's GDP has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, which is in line with economists' definition of a technical recession. Some economists eouu.cnmented that despite being stimulated by state spending recently, economic growth has shown inflationary pressure due to capacity restrictions and recession is a foregone conclusion. ⑶President Putin defended the Russian Central Bank's high interest rate policy at an economic forum, which is currently as high as 18%, aiming to fight inflation. He believes that if inflation gets out of control, it will have a catastrophic impact on the economy, and stressed that Russia is still able to bear a larger fiscal deficit because its debt accounts for only 19% of GDP, which is at a lower level in the world. ⑷ Despite signs of a slowdown, some people, including Kostin, CEO of Russia's second largest bank VTB, said they did not see a significant deterioration in the economy. He stressed that the Russian economy has shown considerable resilience. ⑸ President Putin linked discussions about economic stagnation to dissatisfaction with high interest rates, but pointed out that high interest rates are a necessary means to curb inflation and said that the Russian Central Bank has a high international rating. The latest data shows that annualized consumer price inflation in JulyAt 8.79%, down from 9.40% in June, the central bank expects to reduce inflation to its target level of 4% in 2026.

OPEC+ production increase sound: Autumn surplus alarm escalates again

⑴ eouu.cnmerzbank eouu.cnmodity analyst Carsten Fritsch quoted agency reports that the video conference of the country's voluntary production cuts on Sunday may discuss further production increase. Bergail fell 1.6% to $77.3 on Friday, a two-week low. ⑵ Institutional supply and demand model shows that if daily output increases by another 500,000 barrels in the fourth quarter, the global cumulative inventory in 2025 may rise from the current expected 800,000 barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels, and the inventory high derailment in the second quarter of next year will expand to 150 million barrels. ⑶Fritsch warned that the intensified surplus will force OPEC+ to reduce production again in 2025, otherwise Berry oil may fall below the $60 defense line; according to option data, the bearish open position of $65 exercise in December increased by 18% eouu.cnpared with last week, and funds bet in advance before the price bottomed out.

Employment data is changing, and the Fed's power struggle

⑴The market is closely monitoring Friday's employment data, and it is generally expected that the labor market will cool down in the summer. If the data further confirms the weak job market, it may strengthen investors' expectations that the Fed will restart interest rate cuts. The market has currently priced two to three interest rate cuts this year, which may start as early as mid-September. ⑵ At the same time, the U.S. government is preparing to renegotiate its largest free trade agreement. Trump's tariff rhetors have raised market concerns, and although New York Fed President Williams said the second round of tariffs had limited impact on inflation so far, he also acknowledged that these trade barriers could continue to push up prices in the first half of next year. ⑶ Economic data shows eouu.cnplex signals. The U.S. Department of eouu.cnmerce reported that the trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, with total imports increasing by 5.9%, and exports remained roughly the same. However, a survey by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) showed that the service industry index jumped to 52.0% in August, the fastest growth in six months, but partly the growth was due to eouu.cnpanies preparing stocks in advance to cope with tariff-related price increases. ⑷In this context, the independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged. Trump's appointment of the Federal Reserve has faced doubts as he plans to retain White House positions while taking on the Fed, which will be unprecedented since the 1930s. In addition, the U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into a current Federal Reserve director, exacerbating market uncertainty. ⑸Nasdaq is tightening its listing rules, requiring eouu.cnpanies in China to raise at least $25 million when conducting an initial public offering. In addition, the latest data showed that the number of first-time unemployment benefits applied for last week rose to 237,000, the highest level since late June. These all reflect the market's sensitivity to changes in the economy and regulatory environment

Swiss minister rushed to Washington: 39% tariffs are pressed, and pharma becomes the next line of defense

⑴Swiss Minister of Economic Affairs Parmelin flees to Washington on Thursday night, held talks with senior U.S. officials on Friday, trying to lower the 39% tariff imposed on most Swiss export products under Trump's tariff remarks. The tax rate came into effect on August 7 and has threatened Switzerland's access to its largest export market. ⑵ The Swiss government prepares a new plan: encourage enterprises to increase investment in the United States, increase defense procurement and open markets to the US energy in exchange for a lower tariff; at the same time, strive to avoid additional taxes from the pharmaceutical industry. In 2024, Switzerland exports nearly 65 billion Swiss francs of medicines to the US, accounting for about half of the total exports to the US. ⑶UBS CEO Ermotti said on Friday that the current tariffs will pressure economic growth and boost inflation, and was disappointed that Switzerland was included in the high tax rate list, but still believed that the two sides were expected to reach an agreement on lowering tariffs. The market was concerned whether Parmelin's trip could make concessions before the drug tax was implemented.

The year-on-year growth rate of the euro zone in the second quarter of the GDP increased to 1.5%

⑴ The euro zone's GDP increased by 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, higher than the initial value of 1.4% and 1.6% in the first quarter after the upward correction. ⑵ Household expenditure and inventory changes each contribute 0.7 percentage points, and the total fixed capital formation contributed 0.6 percentage points. ⑶ Public expenditure contributed 0.4 percentage points, and export contributed 0.1 percentage points. ⑷ Imports drag down growth by 1.1 percentage points. ⑸ Among the major economies, Germany grew by 0.2%, France grew by 0.8%, Italy grew by 0.4%, and Spain grew by 2.8%.

Russian President Putin believes that the payment tools between Russia and China can be interconnected to improve the convenience of tourists' travel

Putin said at the plenary meeting of the Oriental Economic Forum: "As for tourism, the payment system needs to be further improved. Our country is fully engaged in this work. The highest-level financial institutions are working on this. We are very clear that citizens who travel outside need to encounter fewer difficulties. Of course, we can use our "peaceful" bank cards and similar payment tools in China. These systems can be interconnected and third-country bank cards can be used."

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York City before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD has risen, and is now at 1.1701, an increase of 0.44%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (Euro-USD) expanded its gains in the last intraday trading, successfully surpassing the negative pressure of the EMA50, forming a bull market on a short-term basis and trading along the supportive slash of the track, on the other hand, (RSI) reached overbought levels, from which there was a negative overlap signal that could reduce recent gains.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.3487, an increase of 0.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose on the last trading day, supported by positive signals on (RSI), and retested1.3460 key resistance, which is a very important level, forms a key point in detecting the intraday track of the currency pair.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3550.41, an increase of 0.16%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell on the last trading day in an attempt to gain positive momentum that could help it rise again, and in the event of positive overlapping signals, lifting its apparent overbought conditions on (RSI), opening the way to target new levels of resistance, where the main bullish trends dominate, its trading follows a slash that shows that the track is dominant.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 40.597, a drop of 0.11%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell slightly on the last trading day, trying to build up its positive power, which may help it maintain a bullish track in the short term, while it trades along a small trend line, supported by its ongoing trading above the EMA50 and showing positive signals on (RSI), exacerbating positive pressure.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 62.760, a drop of 1.12%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices fell in the last trading day, breaking the key support of $62.85, confirming the momentum of price deepening losses, which is the impact of breaking the short-term bullish correction trend line and continuing to bear negative pressure from trading below the EMA50. In addition (RSI) showed negative signals after reaching the overbought level, opening the way to record more losses.

4. Institutional View

Deutsche Bank: The real test of Fed independence under the political tightening curse has not yet eouu.cne

⑴Thu LanNguyen, head of foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that the US dollar has strengthened across the board in recent bond market turmoil, indicating that investors still believe in the "American exceptionalism", that is, the US economy can withstand the crisis better than other countries, so short US dollar shorts are unlikely to become a climate. ⑵ She stressed that it is unclear whether the Fed will succumb to political pressure in the next few months: If non-farms are weaker again on Friday, officials can rely on job declines as a shield for interest rate cuts; only when inflation rebounds force policies to tighten will central bank independence be truly put in the spotlight. ⑶ Currently, core PCE is only slightly more than 2% year-on-yearThe market is still willing to "decorate the peace" for the expectation of interest rate cuts, but Nguyen warned that once Trump's tariff remarks have a more significant transmission to prices, the Federal Reserve will be under pressure on both "stabilizing employment" and "controlling inflation", and then the policy path and the direction of the US dollar will become really difficult.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Germany's huge investment increases, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on September 5". It was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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