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The US and Japan finalize huge trade agreement but leave car tariff suspense, Prime Minister's resignation storm triggers a yen arbitrage

Wonderful introduction:

Don't learn to be sad in the years of youth, what eouu.cnes and goes cannot withstand the passing time. What I promise you may not be the end of the world. Do you remember that the ice blue that has not been asleep in the night is like the romance swallowed by purple jasmine, but the road is far away and people have not returned, where can the love be lost?

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The United States and Japan finalize huge trade agreements but leave car tariff suspense, and the Prime Minister's resignation storm triggers a wave of yen arbitrage." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Asian market market

On Tuesday, with trade tensions and the conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve continued, the US dollar index continued to decline, and the initial US session continued to fall. As of now, the US dollar priced at 97.50.

Summary of fundamentals of the foreign exchange oil market

1. Tariffs

① US Treasury Secretary Bescent: August 1 is a "relatively rigid deadline" for all countries. EU trade negotiations are held separately from Russia-Ukraine sanctions negotiations. The negotiations in Japan are progressing very smoothly.

②Governor of Ontario, Canada: Electricity export tax is still under consideration.

③ South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid being fully imposed by the United States.

④Trump: A trade agreement with the Philippines will impose a 19% tariff on the Philippines. The Philippines will open its market to the United States and impose zero tariffs.

⑤The United States announced the details of the trade agreement reached with Indonesia.

⑥ Canadian Prime Minister: The agreement with the United States that is favorable to Canada is "not yet on the table."

2. White House VS Fed

① US Treasury Secretary: The Fed should cut interest rates now. There is no sign that Powell should resign now. If he wants to leave early, he should do so.

② White House officials plan to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters on Thursday local time.

③TrangPu: Anyway, Powell will be out soon. Interest rates should be reduced by 3 percentage points, or even lower.

④ The forged Powell's resignation letter was spread on social media.

⑤Federal Director Bowman: It is important that the Fed maintains independence in monetary policy; the Fed has the responsibility to maintain transparency and assume accountability.

3. Trump said the United States is considering abolishing the capital gains tax on selling houses.

4. US State Department: The United States will withdraw from UNESCO.

5. Kerbert: Putin will visit China in September, and the Russian side is preparing for the trip to Beijing.

Summary of institutional views

OCBC Bank: Despite political pressure, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain calm this month

OCBC Bank economist Vasu Menon pointed out that despite the continued pressure from the Trump administration, the Federal Reserve is still unlikely to initiate a rate cut this month. But it stressed that U.S. inflation and economic performance will become the key decision-making basis in the eouu.cning months. "The futures market pricing shows that traders do not expect a rate cut this month, but expect one to cut one or two rates before the end of 2024, and further easing will be made in 2025," Menon said. According to its forecast, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by four times in the next 12 months.

TD Securities: Trump's request for Japan to open up the agricultural product market may further shake Japan's fragile political situation

Prashant Newnaha, senior interest rate strategist at TD Securities in Asia Pacific, said that the market regards the U.S.-Japan trade agreement as an unexpected positive for two reasons: First, after the Liberal Democratic Party lost its Senate majority, the outside world originally expected trade negotiations to be postponed; second, the 15% tariff level is lower than the 24%-25% threatened by Trump in April and earlier this month. But one potential hidden danger of the deal is that Trump requires Japan to open markets to American agricultural products. This requirement may face significant political resistance in the implementation process and further shake Japan's already fragile political situation.

Jp Cortez, Executive Director of SoundMoneyDefense League: Can the United States still restore confidence by transparentizing its gold reserves?

The US dollar has continued to weaken since the beginning of this year, hovering at a multi-year low. This trend is pushing the concept of prudent monetary back to the political agenda, and more and more voices are calling for a monetary system supported by physical assets such as gold or silver. This year, 10 states have passed relevant laws, and another 20 are debating similar bills. Most states have canceled sales tax on gold and silver purchases, and only Maine and Hawaii still retain this tax. Vermont and New Mexico are also planning to cancel taxes.

I think the continued shrinking of the purchasing power of the US dollar is one of the reasons that drives this trend. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that the purchasing power of the dollar has dropped by nearly 27% over the past decade, and this depreciation trend can be traced back to 1933. Rising government debt and inflation erode wealth, giving states the motivation to hedge risks with gold. The United States itself isPassing legislation to de-dollarize, reduce dependence on the Federal Reserve and instead hold physical gold. I think the abolition of sales tax is a key step in pushing the currency back to the gold standard. In the past, the government imposed taxes in every link of buying and selling gold and silver, and even formed a triple tax burden, which made ordinary people unable to use gold as their real currency. Although the concept of prudent currency is mostly driven by conservatives, currency devaluation has given this issue a cross-party support. This year, more than 150 New Jersey lawmakers unanimously passed a bill to cancel the gold and silver sales tax.

I also hope to influence federal policy and restore the credibility of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Emerging market central banks are increasing their holdings of gold, buying 1,000 tons per year in the past three years, and are expected to increase the same scale this year. The trust of the dollar has been shaken, but the United States can still restore confidence by transparentizing its gold reserves.

Mitsubishi UF: The US-Japan trade agreement may support the yen to rise

LloydChan, senior foreign exchange analyst at Mitsubishi UFB Bank, pointed out in the report that the US-Japan trade agreement is expected to support the yen trend. The deal will help alleviate the negative impact of tariffs on the Japanese economy as the current ruling coalition loses its majority in the Senate election. "The market's expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates due to the trade agreement may support the yen," Chan said. But he added that recent political uncertainty in Japan may curb investor sentiment.

JP Morgan: Four major reasons explain why the United States and Japan quickly lose their upward action energy

After the ruling coalition loses its majority, we expect this will lead to the US dollar and the yen being higher than its fair value in the days after the election. But the market focus will soon turn to the Bank of Japan's interest rate resolution to be announced on July 31. In the short term, the risks of the United States and Japan are still on the downward trend, and the recent rise may soon lose momentum for four reasons:

1. The current exchange rate level is relatively high relative to the fair value of the US-Japan interest rate spread estimate;

2. The Bank of Japan may have a hawkish turn at its July meeting (as the upward inflation forecast described by Bloomberg), and the abnormal weakening of the yen may prompt it to consider raising interest rates in advance;

3. The "overvolatility" threshold of nearly 4% in the past two weeks has triggered verbal intervention from the Ministry of Finance;

4. If the yen continues to be weak, it may attract criticism from US officials.

In the long run, the market's fiscal concerns about the Japanese government and the downgrade of Japanese government bond evaluations are still tail risks, which may lead to a steeper yield curve and drag down the yen. Young voters tend to cut taxes to increase long-term fiscal pressure. The 2025 fiscal year budget shows that 25% of revenue depends on bond issuance, which is relatively high among major economies. In addition, the United States requires allies to increase military spending to 5% of GDP (now 1.8%), which means that Japan needs to increase its spending by more than 10 trillion yen. The increase in social security expenditure and tax reduction brought about by aging eouu.cnplicates the problem. However, the current outlook for Japan's Treasury bond rating is "stable" and the basic income and expenditure improvement in recent years.This risk is still at the tail.

To sum up, based on valuation and eventual factors, we continue to be tactical bearish on the United States and Japan. However, in the medium term, we need to be vigilant about tail risks and the potential negative for the yen due to the downgrade of Japan's Treasury bond rating, and pay close attention to the unstable domestic political situation.

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The US and Japan finalize huge trade agreement but leave car tariff suspense, Prime Minister's resignation storm triggers a yen arbitrage

Asian market market

Summary of institutional views

OCBC Bank: Despite political pressure, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain calm this month

TD Securities: Trump's request for Japan to open up the agricultural product market may further shake Japan's fragile political situation

Jp Cortez, Executive Director of SoundMoneyDefense League: Can the United States still restore confidence by transparentizing its gold reserves?

Mitsubishi UF: The US-Japan trade agreement may support the yen to rise

JP Morgan: Four major reasons explain why the United States and Japan quickly lose their upward action energy

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

The US and Japan finalize huge trade agreement but leave car tariff suspense, Prime Minister's resignation storm triggers a yen arbitrage

Asian market market

Summary of institutional views

OCBC Bank: Despite political pressure, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain calm this month

TD Securities: Trump's request for Japan to open up the agricultural product market may further shake Japan's fragile political situation

Jp Cortez, Executive Director of SoundMoneyDefense League: Can the United States still restore confidence by transparentizing its gold reserves?

Mitsubishi UF: The US-Japan trade agreement may support the yen to rise

JP Morgan: Four major reasons explain why the United States and Japan quickly lose their upward action energy

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