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market analysis
In the tug-of-war before the pound 1.35 mark, who will win the bulls and bears?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The tug-of-war before the 1.35 pound mark, who will win the long and short?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (July 21), the pound sterling against the US dollar (GBP/USD) rose before the U.S. market, and the exchange rate climbed to around 1.3480. The pound was strong in most major currency pairs, with only slightly weaker against the yen. Market expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) rate cut this year have significantly converged, pushing the pound to strengthen. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) fell back to around 98.00. The trend of global trade policy, the performance of UK economic data and the expectations of US monetary policy have become the core of market attention.
Fundamentals
Recently, the UK economic data has provided fundamental support for the pound. According to Reuters, several Wall Street investment banks (including Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs) collectively lowered their expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cut in September. Citigroup expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates once in August, November and December.
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was higher than expected, with annual rates reaching 3.6% (overall) and 3.7% (core) respectively. This shows that inflationary pressure still exists, which has forced the central bank to be more cautious in monetary policy. In addition, the UK's labor market data for the three months ended May showed that the decline in employment was significantly downgraded, from the original 109,000 to 25,000, showing the resilience of the employment market.
In terms of the US dollar, the June CPI data released by the United States showed that due to the impact of some industry tariffs, the prices of imported goods rebounded, triggering the market to re-evaluate the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the probability of interest rate cuts has dropped from nearly 70% a month ago to 58.5% now.
In addition, the United States has joined the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and IndonesiaAsia reached a trade agreement and was close to reaching a new agreement with India. However, tariff negotiations between the United States and the EU are at a deadlock, especially when it eouu.cnes to issues involving automobile import taxes (maintained at 25%), which could have adverse effects on global trade liquidity.
The market focus this week will focus on the initial value of the S&PGlobal Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in July and the retail sales data in June, respectively, released on Thursday and Friday respectively. These data may become a new yardstick to test the resilience of the UK economy and provide more clues to the subsequent trend of the pound.
Technical:
The 240-minute K-line chart shows that after GBP/USD fell back from the high point of 1.3788 to the recent low point of 1.3364, it showed a moderate rebound. The current exchange rate is above the Bollinger Band upper rail (1.3465) and approaches the important resistance level 1.3500.
From the MACD indicator, the negative values of the DIFF line (-0.0004) and the DEA line (-0.0014) converge; at the same time, the relative strength index (RSI14) is 59.87, indicating that the exchange rate has not yet entered the overbought zone, but the upward action energy is accumulating.
Analysts on key price levels believe that the upper resistance level is at 1.3500. If it breaks through this level, it is expected to test the 1.3550 or even 1.3600 area; the lower support level focuses on the low points of 1.3415 and 1.3364; overall, GBP/USD is in a technical rebound stage in a downward trend, which is relatively long in the short term, but has not yet escaped the constraints of the medium-term downward channel.
Prevention of Market Sentiment
Currently, market sentiment is relatively eouu.cnplicated. On the one hand, the UK's stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data provide support for the longs in the pound, driving market sentiment to be cautiously optimistic. On the other hand, although the US dollar index fell from a high level, it remained strong overall. The cooling of the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and the uncertainty of tariff negotiations have suppressed the risk appetite of global markets.
From the market sentiment indicators, there are no obvious signs of panic selling or overheating in the pound market. Quantitative indicators such as the relative strength index, MACD and Bollinger bands all point to the current technical correction stage, rather than trend reversal. At the same time, traders generally remain waiting and wait for guidance on UK PMI and retail sales data. The overall market sentiment is close to the "neutral long" state, with significant differences between bulls and bears, increasing future market volatility.
Future Outlook
In terms of short-term outlook, analysts believe that if the UK's PMI and retail sales data released this week continue to improve, coupled with the central bank's policy expectations adjustment, the pound is expected to break through the 1.3500 resistance level, challenging 1.3550 and 1.3600, and the upward channel is initially opened. However, if the data is unexpectedly weak and the exchange rate may fall back into consolidation, the support level of 1.3415 or even 1.3364 will be back-tested, and a new round of consolidation will be launched;
The long-term outlook will be more uncertain. On the one hand, the resilience of the UK inflation and labor market may delay the easing process, providing support for the medium and long term of the pound;On the one hand, if the global trade environment further deteriorates or the US dollar index resumes its upward trend, the pound may face external pressure and return to the downward trend dominated by bears. Especially in the context of narrowing policy differences between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the exchange rate may enter a wider oscillation range.
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