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RBA unexpectedly suspends interest rate cuts, Australian dollar appreciates sharply

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The RBA unexpectedly suspends interest rate cuts, and the Australian dollar appreciates sharply." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM: The RBA announced the results of the July interest rate resolution. The mainstream expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the final result is to maintain the benchmark interest rate of 3.85% unchanged, and the Australian dollar has benefited from a sharp rise. As of today's European session, AUDUSD opened at 0.6489 and the highest price was 0.6556, with an intraday increase of 67 points. However, today's K-line highest and lowest prices are both inside the high and low points of the previous K-line, forming a eouu.cnbination of pregnancy lines.

The RBA has always been slower than the mainstream. In the past year, the RBA has only cut interest rates twice, with a cumulative increase of 50 basis points. The New Zealand Fed's interest rate cut during the same period has reached 225 basis points. Even the Federal Reserve, which is in the stage of suspending interest rate cuts, has accumulated a 100 basis points in the same period. From an empirical perspective, the probability of the RBA's decision to remain silent in July is very high.

The reason why the market expects the RBA to cut interest rates is because Australia's inflation rate is falling rapidly. Since the fourth quarter of 2022, Australia's core CPI annual rate has dropped from 6.8% to 2.9%, and there has been no rebound during this period, which means that eouu.cnmodity demand has dropped too quickly. If the RBA does not cut interest rates ahead of schedule to stimulate consumption, the core CPI annual rate is very likely to fall below the 2% healthy standard.

In addition, US President Trump's tariff policies on Australia may lead to an Australian economic recession. In April, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on Australian exports, causing market panic. Subsequently, the United States announced a 90-day exemption period, and the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled down. However, this week will usher in a waiver deadline (July 9), although Trump once againThe postponement was made until August 1, but the market's panic showed signs of rising. From the perspective of preventing international risks, the RBA can hedge external risks by cutting interest rates as soon as possible.

▲XM chart

From the trend structure perspective, at the daily level, AUDUSD is in a medium-term upward trend, but the upward strength is weak and it is likely to face the possibility of a turning trend at any time. The latest band is a decline, and Monday's long negative line caused a acceleration in the decline, but today's long positive line recovered most of the decline, which means that there may be strong support at the 0.618 quarter where the market price is located. From the short-term structure, from June 23 to the present, the AUDUSD daily line has formed a trend of rising first and then pulling back. Connecting two low points can draw a trend line. If support is effective, there will be an upward band in the future, and the upward trend may rise along the trend line.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: The RBA unexpectedly suspends interest rate cuts, and the Australian dollar appreciates sharply". It is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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RBA unexpectedly suspends interest rate cuts, Australian dollar appreciates sharply

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

RBA unexpectedly suspends interest rate cuts, Australian dollar appreciates sharply

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason