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New Zealand resolution and US PCE strike in April, OPEC+ meeting shakes crude oil
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: New Zealand's resolution and the US PCE in April, and the OPEC+ meeting shakes crude oil." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market prospect: New Zealand resolution and US PCE in April, OPEC+ meeting shakes crude oil
XM foreign exchange market prospect: The importance of economic data to be released this week is from high to low: New Zealand Fed interest rate resolution, Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, OPEC+ ministerial meeting, and US April PCE data. Next, we will interpret it one by one.
▲XM chart
At 10:00 this Wednesday, the Bank of New Zealand will announce the results of its May interest rate resolution. Mainstream expectations believe that it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the benchmark interest rate dropped from 3.5% to 3.25%. Due to the close economic and trade relations between New Zealand and Australia, the New Zealand Federal Reserve's monetary policy follows Australia's changes. On May 20, the RBA interest rate decision resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, so there is no suspense about the New Zealand Fed's interest rate cut this week. At 11:00 on the same day, New Zealand Federal Reserve Acting Chairman Hawksby will hold a monetary policy press conference to focus on his speech on monetary policy path, inflation trends and the impact of US policy. If the statement is tough, the New Zealand dollar will be boosted.
▲XM chart
This Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting, corresponding to the interest rate resolution on May 8. The result of the Federal Reserve's resolution in May is to maintain a 4.5% juntaThe interest rate of the bat fund remains unchanged, and its eouu.cnbined effect is to boost the US dollar index, so after the minutes of this meeting are released, the US dollar index may strengthen in the short term. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference on the day of the resolution that the Federal Reserve does not intend to take pre-emptive interest rate cuts; the risk of rising unemployment and inflation has increased; we will always only consider economic data, prospects, and risk balance, that's all. Powell's speech was very tough, which brought a second boost to the US dollar index. It is expected that the Federal Reserve's June 18 resolution will remain unchanged. US President Trump is very dissatisfied with the Fed's attitude of "not rushing to cut interest rates", but judging from Powell's statement, the Fed will not care about Trump's views. The mutually exclusive situation of the Federal Reserve and the White House is not conducive to the recovery of the US macroeconomic and is indirectly negative for the long-term trend of the US index.
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Only at specific time this Wednesday, OPEC+ will hold the 39th Ministerial Meeting, with the focus of the meeting on the issue of the extent and duration of oil production. According to a statement on May 3, OPEC+ member states will increase production by 411,000 barrels in June, exceeding market expectations. The reason for the increase in production is that oil inventories are at a low level. According to the crude oil inventory curve in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the United States, crude oil inventory is indeed at a relatively low level for a long period of time. However, this relatively low state has been maintained for a long time and has not shown any signs of rebound, which means there is no sign of growth in the demand side. If the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday increases production again beyond expectations, international oil prices may suffer a significant impact in the face of weak demand.
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At 20:30 this Friday, the US Department of eouu.cnmerce will announce the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April, with the previous value of 2.6%, and the expected value remains unchanged. The core PCE data is more in line with the consumption habits of American consumers and better represents changes in inflation rates. It is an important reference for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy. If the core PCE data in April remain unchanged as expected, it means that U.S. inflation rate does not change much in April, and there is no need for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy, which will boost the U.S. dollar index. If the data drop unexpectedly, especially with a large drop, it means that the current interest rate level excessively suppresses consumer demand, and the time point for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts will be advanced, which will drag down the US dollar index.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.
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